Risk Outlook Articles
March 2026
Policy ambition vs structural constraints: South Africa’s
industrial strategy under pressure
In the 2026 State of the Nation Address (SONA) delivered
on 12 February, President Cyril Ramaphosa sought to
reassure investors and provide policy clarity in key sectors
by reasserting central authority and signalling continuity in
economic policy.
December 2025
South Africa entered the early festive-season period under intensified policing operations, yet violent and organised crime remained stubbornly entrenched. The month was marked by continued delayed national crime statistics, several high-profile violent incidents, deepening kidnapping and extortion risks, and ongoing evidence of criminal infiltration in parts of the state. These trends have immediate implications for businesses, communities, and security strategy across the country.
November 2025
The foundation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) in its current configuration remains on shaky ground. Nonetheless, we maintain our view that the GNU is likely to persist until at least the Local Government Elections (LGE), due between November 2026 and January 2027.
October 2025
September began with a rare and telling admission of weakness from President Cyril Ramaphosa. Addressing nearly 5,000 African National Congress (ANC) councillors to launch the party’s local government campaign – local government elections (LGE) are due in the next 14 to 16 months – he openly reprimanded them for corruption, mismanagement, and poor service delivery, even going so far as to suggest they learn from opposition-run municipalities, particularly those under the Democratic Alliance (DA).
September 2025
The latest political flashpoint is the African National Congress (ANC’s) resolve to expand the Government of National Unity (GNU), taken at its most recent National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting between 1 and 4 August.
August 2025
The newly-announced 30% blanket US tariff on South Africa will deal a heavy blow to key export sectors in 2025 and beyond.
July 2025
Various disagreements over the application of legislation related to Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (B-BBEE) as a way of economic redress will continue to rattle the foundation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) over the coming months.
May 2025
After more than two months of political deadlock, parliament has finally approved the 2025/26 budgetary framework (“budget”), applicable for the current government fiscal year (April 2025—March 2026)…
April 2025
At the time of writing, politics in South Africa is in flux, with the future of the current formation of the coalition government in doubt. The Government of National Unity (GNU), formed in the wake of the 2024 general elections, and anchored…
March 2025
The refusal to rubberstamp finance minister and senior African National Congress (ANC) politician Enoch Godongwana’s budget for the upcoming government fiscal year between 1 April 2025 and 31 March 2026 (FY25/26) by some members…